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BTRTN 2020 election snapshot: No lack of momentum for Biden and Dems on the monitor but

Tom with the latest BTRTN snapshot of the state of the races.

This is our final “snapshot” before we make our final BTRTN predictions at 5:00 p.m. ET on Monday. (We also reserve the right to view current polls on Tuesday, Election Day, and to make any changes we deem appropriate by 5:00 p.m. (CET) Tuesday.)

Not much has changed and that is news in and of itself. Hillary Clinton was showing signs of fading at this point in 2016, but Joe Biden wasn’t. Some races in the Senate are intensifying, but the chances are still for a Democratic takeover.
The Dems will almost certainly take seats in the House, leaving the GOP with the only consolation of likely flipping a governor’s seat.

Here are the latest BTRTN odds based on a brand new range of our models.

BTRTN WAHL-DASHBOARD FROM 20.10

BTRTN election chances for winning / controlling Democrats

Presidency

senate

House

87%

72%

99%

335 Biden / 203 Trump

51 DEM / 49 GOP (D + 4)

248 DEM / 190 GOP (D +15)

Those odds have risen for the Democrats throughout the year (with the exception of the house odds, which have stayed at 99% all along), reflecting increasingly favorable polls and conditions for the Democrats. But we have a few points less than the Senate’s odds in this final iteration.

CHANGES IN BTRTN ODDS

Date >>>

5/9

5/28

7/1

8/24

9/8

9/15

9/23

10/7

18.10

28.10

Presidency

n / A

73%

82%

81%

79%

81%

82%

83%

87%

87%

Senate control

59%

59%

59%

62%

65%

65%

67%

71%

74%

72%

House inspection

99%

99%

99%

99%

99%

99%

99%

99%

99%

99%

And again we offer our two standard warnings:

WARNING: No matter how good the numbers look at any given time, the Democrats will not win elections unless they work hard to earn them – register voters, call, text, donate – up to and including election day.

WARNING: Remember, this is a snapshot, not a prediction. Even in just four days and with over 77 million votes already cast, anything can happen until the final votes are counted.

THEY RUN

The presidency:: Donald Trump continues his superspreader tour amid record levels of new cases of COVID-19 and the rising death toll. Continuing his brilliantly understated campaign, Joe Biden scalds Trump while spreading empathy, experience and warmth in his messages – and talking about COVID, every chance he can get. And Barack Obama joined the party and fought in Pennsylvania and Florida to win the vote. He will make his first appearance at Biden in Michigan on Saturday.

Trump’s chances of winning remain 1 in 8. He must win all throwing states – and Biden leads nominally in most of them. And then Trump has to pick at least one state where he has followed the entire campaign with a solid lead. Because that focuses on Biden’s home state, Pennsylvaniato be that state. Biden’s lead Michigan
has swelled by almost double digits, and Trump appears to have given up Wisconsin. We moved the last two races from Lean Biden to Likely Biden. But we’re thinking now
Arizonawhere the race heats up to be a Biden Toss Up (it had been a Biden Lean).

Trump needs a catalyst to change the racing dynamics. A number of rallies – a dubious strategy in and of itself given the preposterous COVID look – won’t do this. The crater-like stock market (minus 7% in a week) certainly doesn’t help him. He needs a real October surprise, and he needs it fast because half of American voters have already spoken. Trump can hope that the recently released GDP report could be that catalyst with its “record growth”. But Americans are more likely to read the headline and get to the heart of the matter, which the numbers show – that the economy remains much worse than it was before the pandemic. And that with the rise, whatever resurgence occurs, is slowed down.

The Senate: The Democrats keep solid goals in goal-flip races Arizona,
Colorado and Maine. But they still have to turn one seat over to overcome the suspected loss of Alabama
and get the required 50 seats for control assuming you win Biden. Your leads in Iowa and
North Carolina have narrowed, but between these two and all of the other races, they probably still seem to be taking control of the Senate. The dynamics on the route – all of the money from the Dem donors, all of the calling and texting volunteers, all of the cases of COVID-19 – seem to favor last-minute “persuasers” that turn blue down the route.

Both Georgia
Races are remarkable. The regular race between incumbent Republican David Perdue and Democratic challenger Jon Ossoff could result in a runoff election if none of the candidates get 50% of the vote. And the special election in Georgia on November 3rd is a “jungle primary” that will also result in a runoff if no one passes the 50% hurdle (far more likely than the regular elections). Democrat Raphael Warnock leads the primary, but that’s because current Senator Kelly Loeffler and challenger Doug Collins split the GOP vote. However, in the most recent poll, Warnock was linked to the combined vote between Loeffler and Collins. We brought this to a bug.

The House. The “general ballot” continues to show that the Dems are +9 points ahead of the GOP, which should translate into an increase of around 20 seats, allowing Democrats to exert their influence on the House by a large majority of Fountain to further consolidate over 60 seats.

The governors. There are 11 gubernatorial races and only two are competitive. We expect the GOP to flip Montana, and otherwise all incumbent parties will retain control of their state houses.

Here are all the relevant numbers:

PRESIDENT SNAPSHOT: RETRIEVE NATIONAL

head to head

Status 07.10

As of October 28

Biden

51

51

Trump card

43

43

Spread (D – R)

8th

9 (rounding)

PRESIDENT SNAPSHOT: ELECTORAL COLLEGE

Electoral College

Status 07.10

As of October 28

BIDEN – TOTAL

335

335

Biden – solid

212

216

Biden – probably

14th

36

Biden Lean

63

27

Biden – Tossup

46

56

Trump – Tossup

78

78

Trump – Lean

0

0

Trump – probably

0

0

Trump – Solid

125

125

TRUMP – OVERALL

203

203

PRESIDENT SNAPSHOT: SWING STATE POLLS

State by State (EV)

Latest polls

BTRTN assessment

CAL, COL, CT, DC, DEL, HA, ILL, ME, ME 1st, MASS, NH, NM, NJ, NY, OR, RI, VT, VA, WAS (216)

N / A

D fixed

Michigan (16)

Biden + 9

D Probably (flip)

Wisconsin (10)

Biden + 8

D Probably (flip)

Minnesota (10)

Biden + 7

D Probably

2nd District Nebraska (1)

Biden + 7

D Lean (Flip)

Nevada (6)

Biden + 6

D Lean

Pennsylvania (20)

Biden + 4

D Lean (Flip)

2nd District Maine (1)

Biden + 4

D throw (flip)

Arizona (11)

Biden + 3

D throw (flip)

Florida (29)

Biden + 1

D throw (flip)

North Carolina (15)

Biden + 1

D throw (flip)

Georgia (16)

Biden + 2

R throw

Iowa (6)

Biden + 1

R throw

Ohio (18)

Trump + 1

R throw

Texas (38)

Trump + 2

R throw

ALA, ALASK, ARCHE, ID, IND, KS, KY, LA, MISSP, MO, MON, NEB, NEB 1., NEB 3., ND, OKL, SC, SD, TENN, UT, WV, WYO (125)

N / A

R fixed

PRESIDENT SNAPSHOT: STATE BTRTN RATING CHANGES

State (electoral votes)

Status 07.10

As of October 28

Michigan (16)

D Lean (Flip)

D Probably (flip)

Arizona (11)

D Lean (Flip)

D throw (flip)

Wisconsin (10)

D Lean (Flip)

D Probably (flip)

SENATE SNAPSHOT

senate

As of 10/14

As of October 28

THE TOTAL

51 (+4)

51 (+4)

The holdover

35

35

The solid

10

9

Probably that

2

3

The lean

4th

2

The toss-up

0

2

GOP toss-up

4th

5

GOP Lean

2

1

GOP probably

3

3

GOP Solid

10

10

GOP holdover

30th

30th

GOP OVERALL

49 (-4)

49 (-4)

SENATE SNAPSHOT: STATE BY STATE

Senate by state

Latest polls

BTRTN assessment

DE, IL, MASS, NH, NM, NJ, OR, RI, VA

D fixed

Colorado

Hickenlooper + 8

D Probably (flip)

Arizona

Kelly + 6

D Probably (flip)

Minnesota

Smith + 6

D Probably

Michigan

Peters + 6

D Lean

Maine

Gideon + 4

D Lean (Flip)

N. Carolina

Cunningham + 2

D throw (flip)

Iowa

Greenfield + 2

D throw (flip)

Georgia (Reg)

Perdue + 1

R throw

S. Carolina

Graham + 3

R throw

Montana

Daines + 3

R throw

Kansas

Marshall + 4

R throw

Georgia (Spe)

n / A

R throw

Alaska

Sullivan + 5

R Lean

Mississippi

Hyde-Smith + 5

R Probably

Kentucky

McConnell + 9

R Probably

Alabama

Tuberville + 12

R Likely (flip)

ARK, ID, LA, NE, OK, SD, TN, TX, WV, WY

R fixed

SENATE SNAPSHOT: STATE BTRTN RATING CHANGES

Status

Status 07.10

As of 10/14

Iowa

D throw (flip)

D Lean (Flip)

Minnesota

D fixed

D Probably

N. Carolina

D Lean (Flip)

D throw (flip)

Iowa

D Lean (Flip)

D throw (flip)

Georgia (Spe)

R Lean

R throw

HOUSE SNAPSHOT

House

As of October 20

As of October 28

Generic ballot

The + 8

The + 9

Democrats

251 (+ 18)

252 (+ 19)

republican

187 (- 18)

186 (- 19)

GOVERNOR SNAPSHOT

Governors

As of 10/14

As of October 28

THE TOTAL

23

23

The holdover

20th

20th

The solid

3

3

Probably that

0

0

The lean

0

0

The toss-up

0

0

GOP toss-up

0

0

GOP Lean

1

1

GOP probably

1

1

GOP Solid

6

6

GOP holdover

19th

19th

GOP OVERALL

27

27

GOVERNOR SNAPSHOT: STATE BY STATE

Senate by state

Latest polls

BTRTN assessment

DEL, NC, WASHING

D fixed

Missouri

Pastor + 5

R Lean

Montana

Gianforte + 8

R Likely (flip)

NH, IN, ND, UT, VT, WV

R fixed

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