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BTRTN 2020 Election Snap: The Brief Reply – Can the Democrats Win a Trifecta?

Tom with the latest “snapshot” of the status of the races.

The burning question for Democrats – and we’ve heard it many times lately – is: What is the short answer to whether the Democrats can take control of the White House, Senate, and House?

The short answer: With two weeks to go, the Democrats still have a very good chance of reaching the ultimate “Trifecta” – Joe Biden wins the presidency, the Democrats flip the Senate and keep control of the house.

Here are the latest BTRTN odds based on a brand new range of our models.

BTRTN WAHL-DASHBOARD FROM 20.10

BTRTN election chances for winning / controlling Democrats

Presidency

senate

House

87%

74%

99%

335 Biden / 203 Trump

51 DEM / 49 GOP (D + 4)

251 DEM / 187 GOP (D +18)

Those rates have been rising all year round (with the exception of the house rates, which have stayed at 99% all along), reflecting increasingly favorable polls and conditions for the Democrats.

CHANGES TO THE ODDS

Date >>>

5/9

5/28

7/1

8/24

9/8

9/15

9/23

10/7

10/20

Presidency

n / A

73%

82%

81%

79%

81%

82%

83%

87%

Senate control

59%

59%

59%

62%

65%

65%

67%

71%

74%

House inspection

99%

99%

99%

99%

99%

99%

99%

99%

99%

These conditions include:
Trump’s tendency to self-destruct and the GOP hopes with every non-socially distant rally, every ridiculous claim that we’re “going around the corner” on COVID, and every non-rejection or outright defense of extremist groups. On top of that, the Biden and Swing State Democratic Senate nominees are collecting amazing donations and the truly amazing volunteer base who work insanely to identify every Democratic voter they possibly can (the “Victory 2020”). The team I text with currently has over 46,000 members.)

After delivering this favorable news, we at BTRTN repeat our “warning label” again, which should be read carefully by all Democrats and repeated as a mantra:

WARNING: No matter how good the numbers look at any given time, the Democrats will not win elections unless they work hard to earn them – registering voters, calling, texting, donating – throughout fall through election day.

And remember, this is a snapshot, no Forecast. We have two weeks until election day and you can be sure that a lot will happen by then. Remember 2016 – at this point in the race none of the Comey letters had yet been published.

THEY RUN

The presidency:: Joe Biden’s national lead increased to +9 points in October. Overall, he is also ahead in the surveys on swing status, on average by +4 points over the same period. So far as of October there have been a whopping 83 swing state polls, and Biden has led in 67 of them, Trump was up in just 10, and there have been 6 ties.

Biden wins by +5 points or more in states (and districts) with enough votes (290) to give him the presidency. And while the other states are all “throw-ups,” he’s modestly ahead of the polls in all but them Texaswhere he’s still shockingly competitive. But he doesn’t have to win any of the mistakes to win the election.

The key states here are Michigan, Pennsylvania and Wisconsin. If he holds his “fixed” states (216 votes) and Minnesota (10 more, and he has a +7 lead there), all he needs is these three to get 270. He is ahead by +6 or +7 points. And he also has other “ways to 270” with good leads (+5) Arizona and Nevada.
Biden also considers “within the margin of error” leads in Iowa, Florida, North Carolina (all “toss-ups”) and a variety of other toss-ups also offer options.
At this point in time, it’s an enviable card.

BTRTN PRESIDENT SNAPSHOT

EV

State / District (EV)

Latest polls

BIDEN

335

Solid

216

CA, CO, CT, DC, DE, HA, IL, ME, ME1, MS, NH, NM, NJ, NY, OR, RI, VT, VA, WA

Probably

10

Minnesota (10)

Biden + 7

Lean

64

Nebraska 2. (1)

Biden + 7

Michigan (16)

Biden + 7

Wisconsin (10)

Biden + 6

Pennsylvania (20)

Biden + 6

Nevada (6)

Biden + 5

Arizona (11)

Biden + 5

Throwing up (D)

45

Florida (29)

Biden + 2

Maine 2. (1)

Biden + 4

North Carolina (15)

Biden + 3

Toss-up (GOP)

78

Iowa (6)

Biden + 2

Ohio (18)

Biden + 1

Georgia (16)

Biden + 1

Texas (28)

Trump + 2

Lean

0

Probably

0

Solid

125

AL, AK, AR, ID, IN, KS, KY, LA, MP, MO, MT, NE, NE1, NE3, ND, OK, SC, SD, TN, UT, WV, WY

TRUMP CARD

203

Can Trump possibly win?
Of course – but he has a 1 in 8 chance at this point. You can’t underestimate that; We like to say that horses with fewer chances occasionally win at Belmont. But Trump has to win every tossed unit – which brings him to 248 votes – and then pick two or even three of the states where Biden has a +5 point or more lead. Honestly, it’s unlikely, save for a really devastating October surprise (and Russian-generated Hunter Biden emails sent to Rudy Giuliani and only published by the New York Post hardly count).

The Senate. The Democrats remain in a strong position to turn the Senate around. You need a net of +3 upturned seats to get to 50. This would be enough to gain control, provided Biden wins and VP Kamala Harris is in the chair.

The clearest way to get the required “+3” is to turn around Arizona, Colorado
and any two of Iowa, North Carolina and Maine. This path assumes a successful defense of Michigan (like all other “solid” states, of course) and the loss of Alabama. The Democrats now have a major head start in each of the required states (in both polls and dollars available, thanks to a fundraising mega-gusher in the third quarter). If they won every seat they hold, they would gain control with one free vote at 51 seats.

But they also compete in highly competitive races in many other seats held by the GOP. Four races are mistakes: Georgiaregular choice, Kansas, Montana and South carolina. And Alaska
and GeorgiaBut the special elections are also on the program Kentuckyis likely out of reach at this point. But the Democrats still have a tiny chance of getting away with a staggering 57 seats if everything collapses in a blue tsunami.

BTRTN SENATE SNAPSHOT

Seats

conditions

Latest polls

DEM

51

Holdover

35

Solid

10

DE, IL, MS, MN, NH, NM, NJ, OR, RI, VA

Probably

2

Arizona

Kelly + 9

Colorado

Hickenlooper + 8

Lean

4th

Michigan

Peters + 5

Iowa

Greenfield + 6

North Carolina

Cunningham + 4

Maine

Gideon + 4

Throwing up (D)

0

Toss-up (GOP)

4th

South carolina

Graham + 2

Georgia (regular)

Perdue + 1

Montana

Daines + 3

Kansas

Marshall + 3

Lean

2

Alaska

Sullivan + 3

Georgia (special)

n / A

Probably

2

Kentucky

McConnell + 11

Alabama

Tuberville + 12

Solid

11

AK, ID, LA, MP, NE, OK, SD, TN, TX, WV, WY

Holdover

30th

GOP

49

The House. The Democrats already have a large majority in the house.
The current number is 232 Democrats to 198 Republicans with one libertarian and four vacancies. If you take the four vacancies and distribute them back to their original 2018 holding party and also assign the GOP the seat that the libertarian Justin Amish currently holds, the effective split is 233-205.

On the general vote, the key variable in our BTRTN house prediction model, the dems rose by almost 8 points on average. If Democrats maintain that margin through Election Day, they are expected to move 18 more seats, giving or taking some on our model, for a whopping 251-187 advantage. There is no way the GOP can turn the house around. We’re kind to set the Dems’ chance of holding the house to 99%; We are simply allowing the highly unlikely danger of a meteor landing.

HOUSE SNAPSHOT

House

As of October 20

Generic ballot

The + 7.7

Democrats

251 (+ 18)

republican

187 (- 18)


And always remember:

WARNING: No matter how good the numbers look at any given time, the Democrats will not win elections unless they work hard to earn them – registering voters, calling, texting, donating – throughout fall through election day.

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