News

BTRTN 2020 Election Snapshot: The “Short Answer” To Whether The Democrats Will Flip The Senate

Tom with a quick BTRTN update of the 2020 Senate races.

We have had a number of questions lately from friends, family, and readers that all boil down to the same thing: What is the short answer to whether the Democrats are going to flip the Senate?

Here it is: you can and certainly will. Our BTRTN models have a 74% chance (as of now, a “snapshot”, not a “prediction”) that the Democrats will take control of the Senate. These chances increase with each new set of surveys.

How are you going to do it?

The Democrats now have 47 seats in the Senate, including the two Independents who meet with them. Assuming a Joe Biden win (now 83% shot according to BTRTN models), they would need a three-seat net win to secure control of the 50-seat Senate, with Vice President Kamala Harris playing the pivotal role.

The Democrats start with the 35 seats they occupy that are not up for re-election. Then from The 12 Democratic seats that are on the ballot, 10 of them seem sure winners.
Of the other two, one is – Michigan
– leans blue (reigning Gary Peters rose +6 points) and the other, Alabamais likely to be a loser (incumbent Dem Doug Jones is in the double digits). A win in Michigan brings the Democrats to 46 seats.

The challenge for the Dems is therefore to flip four GOP seats over to get to 50. The GOP has 30 seats that are not available for election. Of the 23, 11 are sure winners for the Republicans. This leaves 12 GOP seats “in the game” for the Democrats to find those four flips.

And from this snapshot, the way to these four seats is clear:

· ·
The Democrats in both countries have had nearly double-digit leads for some time Arizona
(Mark Kelly) and Colorado (John Hickenlooper). These two seem almost solid at this point.
.

· ·
Sara Gideon in Maine
and Cal Cunningham in North Carolina For months both have had a lead of 4 to 7 points over the established GOP companies. Both races are only narrowing slightly at this point – Gideon now averages +3 above Susan Collins, while Cunningham is +4. Cunningham is in the middle of a sexting scandal, but as bad as that sounds, the poll since the scandal started has shown only minor declines in his leadership. His opponent, incumbent Republican Thom Tillis, tested positive for COVID-19 during the same period as the scandal, which certainly didn’t help Tillis.

· ·
And now, Iowa
seems to be moving in the direction of the Democrats.
A few weeks ago this was a race, but the latest polls now show that the Democrat Theresa Greenfield has an advantage over the incumbent Jodi Ernst, on average by +6 points. We have changed it from a GOP Toss Up to a Dem Toss Up and now to Leaning Dem in the last few weeks.

If the Democrats won those five races, they would take control of the Senate with one vacant seat at 51. But there are also eight other races that are competitive. Four are “toss-ups” at this point, albeit a bit ahead of the Republican (within the margin of error): South Carolina, Montana, Kansas and Georgia regular choice. And Alaska
and Georgia Special elections remain in the game, albeit less likely targets for the Democrats at this point. (Kentucky
and Alabama, although not quite “solid red”, are even less likely.)

Here are the odds for each of the results for the number of Senate seats the Democrats will end up in:

D seats

% Chance

48

2%

49

6%

50

15%

51

23%

52

25%

53

17%

54

8th%

55

2%

And here is a summary of the above in chart form. And remember … don’t relax. This is the time to work even harder to vote for Democratic candidates.

SENATE SNAPSHOT

senate

Status 07.10

As of 10/14

THE TOTAL

51 (+4)

51 (+4)

The holdover

35

35

The solid

10

10

Probably that

2

2

The lean

3

4th

The toss-up

1

0

GOP toss-up

4th

4th

GOP Lean

2

2

GOP probably

2

2

GOP Solid

11

11

GOP holdover

30th

30th

GOP OVERALL

49 (-4)

49 (-4)

SENATE SNAPSHOT: STATE BY STATE

Senate by state

Latest polls

BTRTN assessment

DE, IL, MASS, MN, NH, NM, NJ, OR, RI, VA

D fixed

Arizona

Kelly + 8

D Probably flip

Colorado

Hickenlooper + 8

D Probably flip

Michigan

Peters + 6

D Lean

Iowa

Greenfield + 6

D Lean flip

N. Carolina

Cunningham + 4

D Lean flip

Maine

Gideon + 3

D Lean flip

S. Carolina

Graham + 1

R throw

Georgia (Reg)

Perdue + 1

R throw

Montana

Daines + 3

R throw

Kansas

Marshall + 3

R throw

Alaska

Sullivan + 3

R Lean

Georgia (Spe)

n / A

R Lean

Kentucky

McConnell + 11

R Probably

Alabama

Tuberville + 12

R Probably flip

ARK, ID, LA, MISSP, NE, OK, SD, TN, TX, WV, WY

R fixed

SENATE SNAPSHOT: STATE BTRTN RATING CHANGES

Status

Status 07.10

As of 10/14

Iowa

D Flip up flip

D Lean flip

Related Articles