Politics

When Boris goes to Brussels to try to revive the negotiations, the betting money fails to reach an agreement

Smarkets

The price of failure and could be very high

Time is running out for the UK and the EU to reach an agreement and all the signs are that things are going badly. Much depends on whether Boris can find one final dig that is acceptable in Brussels and for his own MEPs. The table above from Smarkets shows how punters react.

The cost of a no-deal could be very high, as Matthew D’Ancona writes under the heading For life, Brexit is not just for Christmas:

It is very important that he succeed. Failure to do so would lead to tariffs, border controls and nightmarish disruptions in ports. The status of aviation would be unclear. New travel restrictions apply to UK citizens entering the EU, as well as mobile phone roaming charges. Health, research and security cooperation would be jeopardized. and the Irish border would become a scene of confusion, commercial chaos and diplomatic tension – especially if the Single Market Act, published in the House of Commons this week, contained the so-called “safety net” clauses that allow British Ministers to go against Northern Ireland -Breaking Protocol This is a crucial element of the 2019 Take Back Agreement.

This last element underscores the difficulties Johnson may face in his relations with President-elect Biden, who has already made his position on Ireland’s position very clear.

My own view agrees with the betting – the favorite has to be a deal, but I’m not as confident as I was.

Mike Smithson

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