While everything is so focused on the pandemic on the Smarkets betting exchange, they are less confident that Johnson can hit a deal in the few days left.
With all of the other distractions and organizational constraints that COVID creates, it clearly has to be a massive challenge for ministers as they step into the EU final.
The reports suggest that the big problem continues to be fisheries and EU countries’ access to UK waters after Brexit. What we don’t know is whether Johnson will get on the wire and take a risk solving any potential problems that arise, especially since much of the infrastructure required has yet to be built.
Given the pandemic, there is a strong case for extending the transition, but Johnson may not be ready to accept it.
In another market, 38% of the punters make it that there will be a no-deal Brexit.