The Georgian drains look very narrow

In 8 days, the state of Georgia will hold critical elections that will have a huge impact on how the US is governed at the start of the Biden administration. Because on November 3rd, the Democrats failed to gain control of the Senate, but the state of Georgia has two seats outstanding. One was a regular election that takes place every 6 years and the other was a special election for a seat that had become vacant. In no case has a candidate scored more than 50%, and under Georgian law there must be an outlier of the two best.

If the Democrats take both, the split with the Republicans will be 50:50, meaning the incoming Vice President has the casting vote. Because of the crucial nature of the outcome, the Democratic campaigns raised more money than any other Senate election in US history. Republicans and Democrats throw absolutely anything at it.

The White House has now announced that Trump will hold a rally in the state the night before – something that could work both ways.

The early votes are slightly lower than for the November presidential election, but this is partly due to the Christmas season closure.

The two factors that are in play in time to judge who will win: first The Republicans, who controlled the state Senate House, have sought to limit the number of polling stations available for early voting. So with fewer seats the queues were much longer and people waited 3 hours or more to cast their ballots.

Secondly Some Republican figures suggest that Republican voters in the state boycott the election in support of Trump’s fraudulent claim that the November 3rd overall result was rigged. I have to say that I cannot fully elaborate the argument here, but if a significant group of Republican voters choose to suspend them, it could have repercussions.

The poll got the two races within half a percent and I think the value bets are on the Democrats.

Mike Smithson

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