With rallies and demonstrations taking place in many U.S. cities, such as New York, to demand the president’s impeachment, there are increasing reports that an attempt may be made by Trump in the past 12 days.
The reason so much anger was visible to everyone on Wednesday when Trump supporters broke into the Capitol. This must not go unpunished if the commitment to democratic values is to be re-established.
Taegan Goddard, who heads the excellent Politicalwire, had this observation of why GOP senators might support the move that would require a two-thirds Senate majority.
“Assuming the vote will take place ‘mid-next week,’ as MP Katherine Clark (D-MA) suggested, the US Senate would have to go to trial immediately, but Trump’s first impeachment took four weeks to reach a verdict Trump only has 12 days in his presidency. This suggests that the goal of the indictment against Trump is likely not to be his actual impeachment, and is instead aimed at preventing him from assuming federal office in the future. That could appeal to enough Senate Republicans – some of whom have 2024 presidential offers in view and would prefer not to run – to get the two-thirds necessary to convict. This would require 17 Republicans to join each Democrat once Raphael Warnock and Jon Ossoff are sworn in. “
Of course, everything is very fluid, but it’s hard to see that no action is being taken against the president.
Punters on the Smarkets exchange now rate it as a 71% chance that Trump will be charged. Observe the rules of the market:
This market concerns the question of whether the US House of Representatives will decide by a simple majority to approve or pass impeachment proceedings against President Donald Trump between January 7, 2021 and the end of his term as President on January 20, 2021. This market is not affected by any votes that may take place in the Senate, including the 25th Amendment. If Donald Trump is removed from office by the 25th Amendment, it will have no impact on the market outcome. If the 25th amendment removes him from office before he is indicted, that market will settle for # 1.